The Gooner Forum

I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn €200 into €10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June.

Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others.

Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League.

I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value.

I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill

*This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example.

*Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.

Will be following this with interest, I turned from punter to matched bettor this year. If you can make money purely from sports analysis and understanding of value then fair play to you.

If you publish your bets on here IN ADVANCE of the games I might follow you with €20 for the fun. I say "in advance" because we had another lad do this a few seasons back and he published half his bets here after the games...

Of course I will post all bets before the game otherwise its of no interest to anybody:)

This is destined to be........

Shortest.
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Betting Round 1:

English Premier League
Hull v West Brom
Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1%
Stake: €67

English Premier League
Swansea v Crystal Palace
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2%
Stake: €56

English Premier League
Man Utd v West Ham
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7%
Stake: €77

I wish you joy division, hope you don't have a blue monday

Results - Betting Round 1

Hull 1-1 West Brom
Swansea 5-4 Crystal Palace
Man Utd 1-1 West Ham

Current Balance: €282

Good luck , when is the next round of bets

StuartL wrote:I wish you joy division, hope you don't have a blue monday

olgitgooner wrote:This is destined to be........

Shortest.
Thread.
Ever.

shu wrote:Good luck , when is the next round of bets

Thanks. For each round of Premier League and Champions League games I will see if I get 3 selections that fit the system and will post them the day before the first game. I will probably average about 2 betting rounds per month with the odd month having 3 betting rounds.

Best of British old bean...
You have to be so selective it is unreal, however the both teams scoring and a team not to lose with either a win or a draw are getting so popular nowadays.
The CL can be an absolute banana skin especially when teams have qualified, and whatever you do, never put Arsenal in they have been unpredictable as far back as when I started watching them in the late 60's....

I'll likely wait for the KO stages of the CL before getting involved there. I haven't identified any games of interest there yet from a betting point of view but from a fans point of view the Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund game should be a cracker with a much easier next game for the winner. The obvious play is goals but I will price it up closer to the time and see who is available before deciding if there is value.

nut flush gooner wrote:Will be following this with interest, I turned from punter to matched bettor this year. If you can make money purely from sports analysis and understanding of value then fair play to you.

How's the old matching betting going NFG?. I'm still going at it as well. Done virtually all the sign up offers. Apart from the odd dodgy bonus ones where you have to roll over a shed load of times.

Found Monday to Friday is pretty slow for offers. But Saturday and Sunday is where all the fun begins. Doing occassional Acca's and e/w arbing.

Hope you are still making a good few quid.

Do you do matched betting on weekly offers as well as the signup offers? I have noticed a few bookmakers are giving 'enhanced winnings' as free bets rather than cash with no stakeback.

How many bookies have you hit for their offers and how much can be made in a season?