€200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division) & Betting Information

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nut flush gooner
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by nut flush gooner »

DB10GOONER wrote:
nut flush gooner wrote:
DB10GOONER wrote:
nut flush gooner wrote:
Rosie_titters wrote:
How's the old matching betting going NFG?. I'm still going at it as well. Done virtually all the sign up offers. Apart from the odd dodgy bonus ones where you have to roll over a shed load of times.

Found Monday to Friday is pretty slow for offers. But Saturday and Sunday is where all the fun begins. Doing occassional Acca's and e/w arbing.

Hope you are still making a good few quid.
Sorry mate for the delay in replying, I have been focusing on setting up a new blog which has taken up most of my time. The blog will feature the service (amongst other personal finance matters) I use for matched betting.

After my illness in August I stopped recording my matched betting activity but at that stage in 5 months I had made 6k doing 2/3hours a day. I started recording my activity again this month and have made £1.5k including £500 on ibrahimovich scoring 2 goals last weekend. So officially I have made £7.5k but with the unrecorded bets it's probably somewhere between £9-£10k.

I am now gubbed from betfair, bet365, paddy power and stake restricted on sky/888. Despite this there are still loads of opportunities both online and in shops and my blog will feature some sort of profit challenge. I am also planning on offering mentoring for newbies.

Last night I used matched betting techniques backing lukaku as first gs in the Merseyside derby. Backed him with betfred for £100. Laid the bet off leaving me with a £17 loss. Betfred have a promo that doubles odds if the first gs scores again, and trebles if he scores a hatrick (DDHH). So after the liability in the exchange has been factored in I was risking £17 to win £600 if lukaku scored first and added a second and£1200 if he scored a hatrick. Pretty good value in the scheme of things. It didn't come in but as I said I hit big last weekend with Ibra vs West Brom on this promo.
Your mistake there was adding the word "Lukaku" to your betslip, mate. :lol: :wink:
Not when he's making me money it isn't. Quite an underrated striker imo. Matched betting is about the long run not one game in isolation........
He is absolute gash. How is he making you money? :roll: :lol:
It's explained in my earlier post, matched betting turns the odds against the bookies because you are laying at the exchange. Not sure if you can do the same in Ireland.

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DB10GOONER
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by DB10GOONER »

nut flush gooner wrote:
DB10GOONER wrote:
nut flush gooner wrote:
DB10GOONER wrote:
nut flush gooner wrote:
Sorry mate for the delay in replying, I have been focusing on setting up a new blog which has taken up most of my time. The blog will feature the service (amongst other personal finance matters) I use for matched betting.

After my illness in August I stopped recording my matched betting activity but at that stage in 5 months I had made 6k doing 2/3hours a day. I started recording my activity again this month and have made £1.5k including £500 on ibrahimovich scoring 2 goals last weekend. So officially I have made £7.5k but with the unrecorded bets it's probably somewhere between £9-£10k.

I am now gubbed from betfair, bet365, paddy power and stake restricted on sky/888. Despite this there are still loads of opportunities both online and in shops and my blog will feature some sort of profit challenge. I am also planning on offering mentoring for newbies.

Last night I used matched betting techniques backing lukaku as first gs in the Merseyside derby. Backed him with betfred for £100. Laid the bet off leaving me with a £17 loss. Betfred have a promo that doubles odds if the first gs scores again, and trebles if he scores a hatrick (DDHH). So after the liability in the exchange has been factored in I was risking £17 to win £600 if lukaku scored first and added a second and£1200 if he scored a hatrick. Pretty good value in the scheme of things. It didn't come in but as I said I hit big last weekend with Ibra vs West Brom on this promo.
Your mistake there was adding the word "Lukaku" to your betslip, mate. :lol: :wink:
Not when he's making me money it isn't. Quite an underrated striker imo. Matched betting is about the long run not one game in isolation........
He is absolute gash. How is he making you money? :roll: :lol:
It's explained in my earlier post, matched betting turns the odds against the bookies because you are laying at the exchange. Not sure if you can do the same in Ireland.
I know what matched betting is. I was being facetious... y'know... because it's Lukaku... because he is gash... :roll: :lol:

nut flush gooner
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by nut flush gooner »

18 goals in 25 appearances for lukaku this season. Not too shabby. He's better than Giroud and would score loads more playing for us.

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DB10GOONER
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by DB10GOONER »

nut flush gooner wrote:18 goals in 25 appearances for lukaku this season. Not too shabby. He's better than Giroud and would score loads more playing for us.
Oh dear... this old gem again. :oops: :roll: You could interchange Lukaku with Sturridge and it would still be bullshit. No he is not better than Giroud and would not score loads more with us.

No idea where you are getting 18 goals in 25 appearances this season for Lukaku. :roll: His ACTUAL stats are 12 goals in 20 PL games and 1 Cup goal. But hey don't let the truth stand in the way of the horseshit, huh? :roll: :lol:

The PL is where strikers earn their money. Giroud is PL average. Lukaku is about the same on a good day.

Compare them;

Giroud---------------------- Lukaku

13/14;
16 goals in 36 games----- 15 in 31

14/15; 14 in 27----------- 10 in 36

15/16; 16 in 38---------- 18 in 37

16/17; 7 in 13----------- 12 in 20

nut flush gooner
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by nut flush gooner »

http://www.soccerbase.com/players/playe ... r_id=56521

http://www.soccerbase.com/players/playe ... r_id=55730

Over their careers both players have similar stats. Perhaps Lukaku paying out on my recent bets has distorted my opinion :).

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by Division »

Results - Betting Round 5

Swansea 0-4 Arsenal
Sevilla 2-1 Real Madrid
Everton 4-0 Man City

Current Balance: €197

German Bundesliga
Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.57 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.9% | Expected Value 109.7%
Stake: €62

English Premier League
Man City v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.3% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €58

English Premier League
West Brom v Sunderland
Bet: West Brom To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 88.4% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 110.6%
Stake: €77

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by Division »

Results - Betting Round 6

Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
Man City 2-2 Tottenham
West Brom 2-0 Sunderland

Current Balance: €290

German Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Monchengladbach
Bet: Bayer Leverkusen To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.36 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 79.6% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 108.3%
Stake: €102

Spanish La Liga
Espanyol v Sevilla
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 64.1% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: €81

Spanish La Liga
Betis v Barcelona
Bet: Barcelona To Win @ 1.3 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 82.1% | Expected Value 106.8%
Stake: €107

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by Division »

Results - Betting Round 7

Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach
Espanyol 3-1 Sevilla
Betis 1-1 Barcelona

Current Balance: €138

English Premier League
Middlesbrough v West Brom
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 BetFred
Expected Strike Rate: 71.1% | Expected Value 106.7%
Stake: €43

English Premier League
Liverpool v Chelsea
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.83 William Hill
Expected Strike Rate: 58.7% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €36

English Premier League
Man Utd v Hull
Bet: Man Utd To Win @ 1.2 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 90.1% | Expected Value 108.1%
Stake: €52

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by Division »

Results - Betting Round 8

Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea
Man Utd 0-0 Hull

Current Balance: €137

English Premier League
Stoke v Crystal Palace
Bet: Stoke Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.3 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 82.5% | Expected Value 107.3%
Stake: €53

English Premier League
Liverpool v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Coral
Expected Strike Rate: 62.7% | Expected Value 108.6%
Stake: €39

German Bundesliga
Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
Bet: Hoffenheim Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.53 Ladbrokes
Expected Strike Rate: 73.2% | Expected Value 112.1%
Stake: €45

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by Division »

Results - Betting Round 9

Stoke 1-0 Crystal Palace
Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
Wolfsburg 2-1 Hoffenheim

Current Balance: €69

Champions League
Benfica v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 63% | Expected Value 109.1%
Stake: €22

Champions League
Real Madrid v Napoli
Bet: Napoli +2 Handicap @ 1.53 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 69.5% | Expected Value 106.4%
Stake: €25

Champions League
PSG v Barcelona
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Stan James
Expected Strike Rate: 65% | Expected Value 108.7%
Stake: €22

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rjw1985
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by rjw1985 »

Anyone going to do another one until the end of the season? Me needs dough

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by Division »

I won't be continuing the log in its current format. The stake percentage is simply too high.

To quote my opening post:

"This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example."

I am currently formulating a more traditional strategy but one that will allow the objective to be completed within a reasonably time frame so I will be back soon but I have to run a few more simulations to finalise a strategy that I am happy with that will have a much greater chance of success but over a longer time frame. I bet a flat stake of 2% with my main bankroll but that won't be suitable for this log so I'm looking to see what stake percentage I am comfortable with but it will be less than a half Kelly stake.

Regarding my pledge to donate €500 to Concern Worldwide this will stand for the new betting log and I will continue with the log for however long it takes to complete it successfully.

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rjw1985
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Post by rjw1985 »

Division wrote:I won't be continuing the log in its current format. The stake percentage is simply too high.

To quote my opening post:

"This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example."

I am currently formulating a more traditional strategy but one that will allow the objective to be completed within a reasonably time frame so I will be back soon but I have to run a few more simulations to finalise a strategy that I am happy with that will have a much greater chance of success but over a longer time frame. I bet a flat stake of 2% with my main bankroll but that won't be suitable for this log so I'm looking to see what stake percentage I am comfortable with but it will be less than a half Kelly stake.

Regarding my pledge to donate €500 to Concern Worldwide this will stand for the new betting log and I will continue with the log for however long it takes to complete it successfully.

Ok thanks. Look forward to your new strategy! Good luck

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Division
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Betting Log [Division]

Post by Division »

€200 to €10,000 Betting Log

Thread betting guidelines

Football bets only.

I will assign an estimated win percentage for each bet.

I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill

Each bet stake will be for 5%, 10% or 15% of the current bank amount.

*Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.


I will kick the betting log off with the game of the week, Liverpool v Arsenal, which could have a big bearing on the Champions League places in the English Premier League.

Starting Balance: €200

English Premier League
Liverpool v Arsenal
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Paddy Power
Estimated Win Percentage: 74.4%
Stake €20

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Division
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Re: Betting Log [Division]

Post by Division »

Liverpool 3-1 Arsenal

Balance: €213

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