The 'I told you so' EU referendum - Officially the Worst Thread Ever

[nut flush gooner]

21.03.16

CBI: Brexit could cost 5% of GDP by 2020
The CBI has launched another warning about the implications of a vote to leave the European Union, releasing a study claiming Brexit could cost the UK almost a million jobs by the end of the decade.

The business lobby group asked accountancy firm PwC to model UK growth under different scenarios after Brexit.
The accountancy firm found that annual growth within the EU would be 2.3% to the end of the decade, compared to an average of 1.5% if the UK had a free trade agreement with the EU, or 0.9% if it operated under World Trade Organisation rules.
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The CBI says that could translate to almost 5% of GDP and 950,000 jobs.
“The savings from reduced EU budget contributions and regulation are greatly outweighed by the negative impact on trade and investment,” said CBI director-general Carolyn Fairbairn.
"Even in the best case this would cause a serious shock to the UK economy."
The picture after 2020 shows higher growth under the Brexit scenarios, though not quickly enough to make up for the initial loss forecast.
The free trade agreement would result in growth of 2.7% and the WTO deal 2.6% in the five years to 2025, compared to 2.3% within the EU.
- See more at: https://www.politicshome.com/economy-an ... IywMU.dpuf

Think I'll stick with jobs and a stronger economy. #StrongerIn

I was going to add that to my point but thanks for linking. For all the EU's failings we have to be selfish and look at whether we are better off in or out, some people will not understand economics which is fine - but its better to make an informed decision than one based on prejudice. No one will win if that happens. The CBI make a valid point.

[A11M11]

Funny that and then this report :- The latest report by the EU-funded CBI, a close ally for the Remain campaign actually admits that in the long term, our economy will grow FASTER outside of the European Union.

Their forecast for growth between 2021-2025 if we remain in the EU is 2.3%.

But if we LEAVE, our economy will grow at 2.7%.

More prosperity, more jobs, more control, OUTSIDE of the European Union.


Truth from people with vested interests , Not very likely.

Politicians by their very nature are liars , the more politicians the more lies you hear . Brussels is full of politically motivated people.
Today's events not withstanding . Tragedy/

[Chippy]

Funny that and then this report :- The latest report by the EU-funded CBI, a close ally for the Remain campaign actually admits that in the long term, our economy will grow FASTER outside of the European Union.

Their forecast for growth between 2021-2025 if we remain in the EU is 2.3%.

But if we LEAVE, our economy will grow at 2.7%.

More prosperity, more jobs, more control, OUTSIDE of the European Union.


Truth from people with vested interests , Not very likely.

Politicians by their very nature are liars , the more politicians the more lies you hear . Brussels is full of politically motivated people.
Today's events not withstanding . Tragedy/

EU funded? Lol. The growth will only be greater because we will have 5 years of real economic problems after Brexit. This will start to unwind later as we manage to re-negotiate trade deals. Having had 8 years of austerity I personally don't want another 5 years pissed down the drain because of some little Englander fantasy.

[DB10GOONER]

I'm voting we let the gays marry. Live and let live.

And it will make our resident Ewoks FwankSav and OneBard happy.

[northbank123]

The problem with these economic forecasts is that they are all pie in the sky really. People have their gut reactions on whether it would be good for our economy or not but pretty much every political or business spokesperson has a vested interest. Nobody really knows how the world economy would react, nobody really knows how petty the EU would be prepared to be in cutting off their nose to spite their face and making trade deals difficult if the UK voted to leave.

I am nowhere near as qualified to make detailed economic predictions as the likes of PWC top dogs, but I have to say I am a bit sceptical about a report which suggests an immediate and fairly severe jolt for our economy before our economy starts performing stronger than it otherwise would have done within just a few years. Personally I would imagine that either the initial shock is very severe in which case it will likely become self-perpetuating as more businesses etc look to desert a sinking ship, or the initial shock will actually be milder than predicted and the British economy might well maintain its performance almost immediately.

And to add to all of these predictions being largely guesswork, it doesn't help that both sides are keen to stifle/discredit any economic analysis if it doesn't suit their agenda. And many of the economic impacts of leaving the EU are going to be very long-term so it will be impossible to really analyse until some time after any potential exit.

[Chippy]

The problem with these economic forecasts is that they are all pie in the sky really. People have their gut reactions on whether it would be good for our economy or not but pretty much every political or business spokesperson has a vested interest. Nobody really knows how the world economy would react, nobody really knows how petty the EU would be prepared to be in cutting off their nose to spite their face and making trade deals difficult if the UK voted to leave.

I am nowhere near as qualified to make detailed economic predictions as the likes of PWC top dogs, but I have to say I am a bit sceptical about a report which suggests an immediate and fairly severe jolt for our economy before our economy starts performing stronger than it otherwise would have done within just a few years. Personally I would imagine that either the initial shock is very severe in which case it will likely become self-perpetuating as more businesses etc look to desert a sinking ship, or the initial shock will actually be milder than predicted and the British economy might well maintain its performance almost immediately.

And to add to all of these predictions being largely guesswork, it doesn't help that both sides are keen to stifle/discredit any economic analysis if it doesn't suit their agenda. And many of the economic impacts of leaving the EU are going to be very long-term so it will be impossible to really analyse until some time after any potential exit.

So why would you take the risk?

[northbank123]

The problem with these economic forecasts is that they are all pie in the sky really. People have their gut reactions on whether it would be good for our economy or not but pretty much every political or business spokesperson has a vested interest. Nobody really knows how the world economy would react, nobody really knows how petty the EU would be prepared to be in cutting off their nose to spite their face and making trade deals difficult if the UK voted to leave.

I am nowhere near as qualified to make detailed economic predictions as the likes of PWC top dogs, but I have to say I am a bit sceptical about a report which suggests an immediate and fairly severe jolt for our economy before our economy starts performing stronger than it otherwise would have done within just a few years. Personally I would imagine that either the initial shock is very severe in which case it will likely become self-perpetuating as more businesses etc look to desert a sinking ship, or the initial shock will actually be milder than predicted and the British economy might well maintain its performance almost immediately.

And to add to all of these predictions being largely guesswork, it doesn't help that both sides are keen to stifle/discredit any economic analysis if it doesn't suit their agenda. And many of the economic impacts of leaving the EU are going to be very long-term so it will be impossible to really analyse until some time after any potential exit.

So why would you take the risk?

A valid point and the one reason why I could not say with absolute certainty at this stage that I will vote to leave - this does nag away at me. Although "why take the risk" isn't in itself enough to convince me to vote to stay.

I think that when considering the risk of leaving we also need to think about the long-term stability of the EU. Even most proponents of staying accept that it is a mess of an organisation. To say that the cracks are being papered over is an understatement - Greece being the prime example having cooked the books to gain entry to the Euro, maintained ridiculous fiscal policies, tried to mask the extent of their black hole and for the last few years have been faced with having to impose unsustainable policies at the insistence of their German overlords whilst the ECB impose fiscal policies designed to both benefit struggling Southern European economies and burgeoning Northern European ones. And I know that some of these problems are specific to the single currency but they are symptomatic of the wider issue with near-unchecked EU expansion and EU integration.

If that's what it's like now and looking at how it's changed since the introduction of the Euro, imagine what it's going to be like in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years. It will probably cover half of Eurasia at that point. Despite these token concessions David Cameron claims to have received, European expansion and integration is only going to intensify and I personally don't see it as being viable to sit outside of that but still expect to receive all of the benefits of the EU. The other European leaders were happy to let David Cameron sell us as occupying a special and unique position within Europe but the reality is either we will continue to get dragged along or will become increasingly marginalised and deriving less benefit whilst still being bound on so many key issues.

My fundamental problem with the EU is not freedom of movement. Freedom of movement can be an absolutely wonderful policy is an effective economic union - it is also a pillar of the EU and not one they should change if they want to survive as an entity. My problem is that the EU has expanded far beyond the core group of similar Northern/Western European economies, hence why benefit tourism and low-skill migration is such an issue. Likewise, what we don't generally consider here is what a 'brain drain' there must be on the weaker economies who see their skilled workers heading elsewhere to earn a fortune.

Also I loathe how political the EU has become and am pretty sick of Germany, Francois Hollande, the Polish prime minister and every other bureaucrat in Europe announcing to the world what Britain can and can't do. Again, this is only going to get worse. Whilst I'm not hugely assuaged by the whole "we will fight them on the beaches" approach to this referendum, by way of comparison the driver of the EU Germany has existed as a unified country for less than 200 years (and to put it diplomatically their borders have changed quite a bit since then) so the idea of this push towards a federal Europe is not as far-fetched as it seems to some people.

[Nos89]

I have voted conservative pretty much all of my adult life, and voted for Boris to be mayor of london.

Quite a funny character, his "bungling idiot" approach is quite endearing. BUT, if he is responsible for us leaving the EU, the loss of thousands of jobs a weaker currency (sterling has fallen through the floor today because of the Boris effect) and he makes it to be the next leader of the Conservatives, I will abstain at the next General Election.

There are arguments for leaving the EU but our relationship with India, China and the US is crucial for the future of this country. If the consequence of leaving the EU is losing investment from all these nations then IMO it just isn't worth it. I have worked for companies that offer services to inward investing overseas firms, and have seen all of these countries set up satellite operations in the UK creating hundreds if not thousands of skilled well paid jobs over the last decade. One US firm alone went from employing 3 employees in 2004 to 200 plus today. That's just my personal experience and it's before you even start looking at large ftse 100 companies who have said they will relocate jobs if we leave the EU.

I was under the impression that our economic relationships with India, China and USA would continue with or without us being in the EU, in fact being out we could improve and have more direct manufacturing contracts with the big 2 and possibly with India. We do not need the EU to have economic trade with the three most important economic countries in the world. Germany appears to be on its way to tanking economically.
I would suggest that the referendum has been brought forward to facilitate a new prime minister. An exit will see boris installed as PM as Cameron steps down, a stay vote will see George Osbourne in charge. I don't think Cameron will see out the full term, he didn't look too motivated during the election and he doesn't appear to want the job anymore. It is no accident that nearly all economic policies set by this government have a timeline to commence in 2020...the year of the next election. Also, as explained by Cameron on the announcement of the referendum, the exit will take 2 years, which gives the current government 2 years to implement a strategy to gain re-election in 2020. If anyone believes they are doing this for the benefit of the everyday people in this nation, think again...it's all about the conservatives staying in power. They've learnt from the error they made with letting Maggie stay in charge for 11 years. A new political party is needed, UKIP had the best manifesto for a modern day Britain, it is unfortunate that they didn't talk about it, just kept banging on about illegal immigrants. If they rebranded themselves by changing their name they would be a major contender for government at the next election.

Ok let me explain the issues with your theory. Firstly, Indian and Chinese firms when they want to do business in Europe usually set up a satellite operation for which to sell their wares if you like to the rest of Europe. It's just totally inefficient and expensive to do this in every country.

The country of choice certainly for India given the cultural/language and historical ties is the UK less so for China. You would think that the US would naturally pick the UK as a point of access to do business in Europe, but they have already said the impact us leaving will have. Therefore, its not unreasonable to accept that we will lose out on trading contracts and ultimately jobs that would have been created in the UK.

Now given what I have already said, if we are outside the EU trade will become much more complicated. We have already discussed on this thread the time it takes to set up trade agreements and I am sure that a lot of the EU countries who noses will be put out of joint by Brexit will not be as accommodating as you would think.

UKIP where a shambles in the election, they didn't get the seats they thought they did and their leader stepped down and changed his mind! The one and only MP launched a stinging attack on Farage. Is this really a credible alternative, somehow I don't think so and so did a lot of the Tory vote.

Cameron will be in number 10 after the referendum, what makes you think he is disinterested? He worked his nuts off over getting a deal that he could take to Parliament. The only person whose playing politics is Boris Johnson.

China is an economy that is still growing and we've just agreed the biggest deal with China to build a nuclear plant that does not include any other EU member. It certainly wasn't affected by our membership of the EU. Evidence that we can strike trade deals without the EU, and with China.
Banking and Insurance companies are relocating parts of their business to countries like India already, again, no real impact on the EU membership.
We already get our gas/coal and other fuels from south America, the middle east and China again...I have reason to believe that this is independent from the EU.
USA need us in the EU to maintain their world leadership status because China own their debt, and if China called on the US to pay up they are...well, trumped shall we say.
Did you read the UKIP manifesto? As I said they need rebranding and start talking about the detail of the manifesto rather than just immigrants, which as you may have pointed out already, would not change even if we left the EU...
Cameron is working hard for the EU deal, which really isn't what he wanted because he needs a legacy, otherwise his legacy is non-existent...if he loses he has no option but to stand down, if he wins the yes vote then he'll go when the going is good...either way, we'll have a new PM in 2017 that we did not vote for...again.

Where do I start! I really need to learn how to break up paragraphs but here goes ........

Firstly China's economy is under extreme strain, it's stock market has collapsed which in turn has lead to fears of a global downturn. GDP figures (which are a measure of how much an economy is growing) have declined alarmingly over the last couple of years, that coupled with the fact that most economists think that China issue these figures "on the back of a fagpacket" suggest that all is not rosy in China. It's economy is predominantly manufacturing based, but it is anticipated that as is the case with many developed economies the services sector will come to the fore and start to be the driver for future growth. You mention the Nuclear Plant deal with China, well they are contributing building the facility yes but it's an investment not a donation, they will expect a return for their investment.

Where do you get Banking and Insurance companies relocating to places like India???!!!! There certainly was a trend over 10 years ago to set up overseas call centres to outsource basic services (eg bank account enquiries), but most of the more skilled higher paid jobs still remain within the UK. Who in their right mind would take Investment or Pensions advice from someone who they never met in India! I have worked in Financial Services for over 30 years so would like to think I have a reasonable handle on what is going on in this country we employ thousands of people in this sector, not only in the square mile but also in places like Bournemouth and Edinburgh. There is no doubt brexit will cost jobs.


"USA need us in the EU to maintain their world leadership status because China own their debt" really LOL. I have to admit I had to look this up because it was quite a sweeping statement you made there, here are the facts.

http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/moneymatt ... na-Own.htm

China doesn't own all of the US debt as you have suggested, its nearer 8%. Governments issue debt on the markets in the form of Bonds. Pretty much anyone can buy this debt it works like a loan where you get a nominal rate of interest and a lump sum at the end of a fixed term. The US are considered one of the most credit worthy nations in the world, so I am not surprised the Chinese are looking for a solid investment to give them a decent return. Quite was this has to do with the EU and Brexit is beyond me.

I did read UKIP's manifesto before the general election, then took it to the toilet and have had a sore arse ever since .

I read the link and it states China owns 8% (1.8 trillion dollars) of USA debt that is declared that is known. How much does it own through corporation and private owners of USA debt? There is no clarity on those figures in that article, so the facts are not very clear.
I suggest USA wants us to stay in EU so we can tell them what is happening from the inside, if you consider the EU has largest growth potential as a single market that could threaten both USA and China economic powers. To add the World Trade Organisation, and the G20 are based in Europe might also be a reason to keep in contact from the inside.
As for the UKIP manifesto maybe you shouldn't have rolled it to use as an in/out consensus indicator
Back to the Brexit I'm not entirely convinced by the socio economic scaremongering going on. The fact that Corbin agrees with Cameron about staying in, but focussing on a different approach speaks volumes as to our position within the EU.

[Chippy]

[northbank123]

You could probably come up with 20 of these for Boris and probably something similar for more or less anybody - there's been endless rhetoric on this matter.

Although "along the lines of" and "imitating" are not exactly the same - especially if the contexts are slightly different. A deal fundamentally based on the Canadian model but with a few key differences would fit both?

[Chippy]

You could probably come up with 20 of these for Boris and probably something similar for more or less anybody - there's been endless rhetoric on this matter.

Although "along the lines of" and "imitating" are not exactly the same - especially if the contexts are slightly different. A deal fundamentally based on the Canadian model but with a few key differences would fit both?

[DB10GOONER]

You could probably come up with 20 of these for Boris and probably something similar for more or less anybody - there's been endless rhetoric on this matter.

Although "along the lines of" and "imitating" are not exactly the same - especially if the contexts are slightly different. A deal fundamentally based on the Canadian model but with a few key differences would fit both?

I think you're just going to have to accept that Boris is a spaztard.

And you mad bastards voted for him! Not so funny now, huh?

I am going to piss my kacks in about 2 or 3 years time when Prime Minister Johnson and President Trump do their first joint press conference.

[northbank123]

I didn't vote Boris in, it's the posh folk in Uxbridge and South Ruislip you've got to thank for that!

[DB10GOONER]

I didn't vote Boris in, it's the posh folk in Uxbridge and South Ruislip you've got to thank for that!

Come on now, mate. You sure you and your drunken college mates didn't think "You know what would be hilarious? If we all voted for Boris...." without realising that millions of other drunk Londoners were also thinking "Hey, you know what would be hilarious...?"

[Chippy]

I didn't vote Boris in, it's the posh folk in Uxbridge and South Ruislip you've got to thank for that!

Come on now, mate. You sure you and your drunken college mates didn't think "You know what would be hilarious? If we all voted for Boris...." without realising that millions of other drunk Londoners were also thinking "Hey, you know what would be hilarious...?"

NB123 has shag all to do with London DB. Welshman who went to Uni in Nottingham, so we can't blame him.