Martin Samuel on Wenger nomics

[storrmin571]

Two bob. It is not the insult that should hurt Arsene Wenger. After all, he’s had it worse. No, the most alarming aspect of the phrase that summed up another dismal weekend for Arsenal is that two bob might turn out to be Wenger’s spending budget in the January transfer window.
Stan Kroenke, Arsenal’s owner, broke his famed silence last week, but offered little by way of comfort. He gave Wenger his full endorsement, and rightly so, but it was what he said about his manager’s greatest strengths that was most illuminating. Kroenke called Wenger ‘the ultimate evaluator’. He applauded Wenger’s skill for getting value from his players.

All true. Look at how Wenger buys and sells: the man is a genius. Kroenke is right; no manager in football gets more bang for his buck out of the playing staff than Wenger — unless success is measured in trophies. Arsenal haven’t won one in six years, so either Kroenke’s recognition is historic or he is talking about a different type of value: economic, probably.

Wenger extracts tremendous financial value from his players because he buys cheap, sells dear, yet somehow retains Arsenal’s position in the Champions League.
No wonder bosses love him: Wenger is a fiscal magician. Yet many thought that of Gordon Brown, too, until his tricks started misfiring. This is now happening at Arsenal. October 2 must be a new record for a manager of one of the elite three clubs to give up on the title and there is no evidence that Arsenal are through this early-season crisis.
Wenger was even asked, mischievously, about relegation after the defeat by Tottenham. There is no chance of that, but he admits adjusting his aim to securing fourth position, minimum, and a berth in the Champions League.
The source that Kroenke cites to support his endorsement of Wenger is Billy Beane, general manager of Oakland Athletics baseball team, and the subject of a bestselling book — now a film starring Brad Pitt — called Moneyball.

Beane is the most famous exponent of a form of statistical evaluation called sabermetrics. Instead of assessing potential using traditional methods such as batting average or bases stolen, Beane began using alternative indicators. His methods opposed conventional wisdom, yet in 2002 the Athletics went on a 20-game unbeaten run, the longest in the history of the American League.
For six years they remained fiercely competitive despite a payroll amounting to one third that of the New York Yankees. These days many franchises, including the Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks and St Louis Cardinals have full-time sabermetric analysts. Beane, a fan of European football, even advises Liverpool on an unofficial basis.

‘Billy Beane is a very famous guy in America,’ Kroenke said. ‘And do you know who his idol is? Arsene Wenger. No kidding. You know why? His ability to spend money and extract value. That is what being successful in pro sports is all about.’
So how many World Series has Beane won with Oakland? None. How many World Series finals has he reached? None. How many American League Pennants has he collected? None.

The extent of Oakland’s achievement under Beane so far is to win the American League Western Division and qualify for the Divisional Series play-offs in 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2006. How many teams are there in the ALWD? Four.

So having come top of a four-team group four times in 12 years — and having lost the Divisional Series playoff each time — Arsenal may now enjoy a management strategy similar to this? Surely not.

The jury is out on Moneyball, even in America. Oakland have not made a play-off or won more than half their matches any season in the last five. Indeed, since 2008, Oakland have finished 3rd, 4th, 2nd and 3rd. This is out of four, remember. Moneyball’s champions continue to joust with numbers and other obscure claims to glory. In 2010, Oakland led the whole of Major League Baseball in defensive efficiency (percentage of balls hit into play by opposing batsmen that resulted in the batsman getting out). Well, whoop-de-doo. That season Oakland still came second to Texas Rangers in the ALWD and the World Series was won by the San Francisco Giants, a franchise that has little truck with sabermetrics.
And Arsenal are not the Oakland A’s. They are not a lowly franchise devising ever more ingenious ways to compete in the big league. They were shoulder to shoulder with the biggest clubs in Europe until very recently and always make it to the knockout rounds of the Champions League. They should be title contenders, and would be if Wenger was supported financially.
Yet for Kroenke to quote Moneyball and player value as good as makes it plain that what he likes most about his man is his brilliance at achievement on the cheap. This is as worrying as the sight of Per Mertesacker as a makeshift centre forward against Tottenham on Sunday.

Owner's dream: Wenger delights Arsenal majority shareholder Stan Kroenke by delivering value for money
Yes, Kroenke sanctioned a spending spree in the summer, but only after two of the best players had been sold and eight goals leaked at Manchester United. There certainly did not seem much of a grand, scientific plan at Arsenal as the place went into meltdown with the transfer deadline approaching.
At least when Kroenke was still Silent Stan, those of optimistic bent could allow ambitious schemes to fill the void, imagination conjuring the funds required for Wenger to regain ground on his rivals. Now there is doubt.
Kroenke admires Wenger the miracle worker, but one look at the league table suggests this act is on the brink of obsolescence. Reality has caught up with Wenger just as it did Beane; and the last thing Arsenal need now is more theory.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/articl ... z1ZtwHoynQ

[Red Member]

As I have been saying on here - KROENKE OUT

[donaldo]

As long as 60,000 turn up every week why is Kroenke going to change things? Even when he puts ticket prices up the fans roll up.One day they will realise Kroenke is not bothered about success on the pitch.If he was Wenger would have got his P45 by now.A success to Kroenke is huge profits.If you said to Kronke we can win the premiership or make £50m profit we all know what he would choose.Wenger is his perfect manager.He sells our best players for massive profits and replaces them with players for half as much.Wenger and Kroenke are both as bad as each other.We need them both out

[DB10GOONER]

Christ... my eyes... what has been read cannot be unread...


Stats in sports is a load of old bollocks. All these stattos and fucking knob end maths geeks fail to understand (or allow for) two of the most important factors in sporting success; good old fashioned guts and heart.

These fuckwits all seem to believe sport is about sorting out the finances, adding up the stats and heyfuckingho finish mid table, but that is success because you didn't spend a fortune!! Gobshites.

[Norfolk_Gooner1]

[barnetgooner]

As long as 60,000 turn up every week why is Kroenke going to change things?

Why can't he realise that a big proportion of income is from club level/boxes and they won't pay through the nose to see a mid table team, why a successful businessman can't understand this is beyond me.

Good article by Martin Samuel; the AW - Gordon Brown comparison seems very apt.

[A dallying Gus Caesar]

As long as 60,000 turn up every week why is Kroenke going to change things? Even when he puts ticket prices up the fans roll up.One day they will realise Kroenke is not bothered about success on the pitch.If he was Wenger would have got his P45 by now.A success to Kroenke is huge profits.If you said to Kronke we can win the premiership or make £50m profit we all know what he would choose.Wenger is his perfect manager.He sells our best players for massive profits and replaces them with players for half as much.Wenger and Kroenke are both as bad as each other.We need them both out

But that is the whole point Donaldo.

Supporters of our club are not brain dead, they are not going to keep filling the stadium if the club offers no hope and we go down the toilet. I will not be wasting my money on a team I have no faith in and slightly less respect for (apart from some lads i.e. Jack, Thomas etc)

My guess is that apart from the big games at home, we wont see full houses anymore this season. And trust me, this season's attendances may look good compared to next seasons unless something dramatic happens!

[SteveO 35]

As long as 60,000 turn up every week why is Kroenke going to change things? Even when he puts ticket prices up the fans roll up.One day they will realise Kroenke is not bothered about success on the pitch.If he was Wenger would have got his P45 by now.A success to Kroenke is huge profits.If you said to Kronke we can win the premiership or make £50m profit we all know what he would choose.Wenger is his perfect manager.He sells our best players for massive profits and replaces them with players for half as much.Wenger and Kroenke are both as bad as each other.We need them both out

But that is the whole point Donaldo.

Supporters of our club are not brain dead, they are not going to keep filling the stadium if the club offers no hope and we go down the toilet. I will not be wasting my money on a team I have no faith in and slightly less respect for (apart from some lads i.e. Jack, Thomas etc)

My guess is that apart from the big games at home, we wont see full houses anymore this season. And trust me, this season's attendances may look good compared to next seasons unless something dramatic happens!

On the contrary - there more than a few shouting me down on here the other day when I suggested that people should give up season tickets. Sorry but all the while there is a full ST take-up, the stadium will be full. It's the ultimate financial model for the club - you pay a whole year in advance. Not many businesses get that level of visibility over their cash flow.

I've done my bit by refusing to buy any home match tickets this season, or at the least until there is significant investment, or any official merchandise etc.

As far as I'm concerned any season ticket holder that complains like mad again until next May, and then renews again next Summer is just helping the club paper over its gaping cracks.

Of course it hurts not going to games. Its the worst sacrifice to make. I've built a network of friends throughout years of watching Arsenal, and still have family that hold season tickets. But unless someone makes a start somewhere but hitting Kroenke and the executives in the pocket, then you're all just shouting into a void I'm afraid

[djhdjh]

Christ... my eyes... what has been read cannot be unread...


Stats in sports is a load of old bollocks. All these stattos and fucking knob end maths geeks fail to understand (or allow for) two of the most important factors in sporting success; good old fashioned guts and heart.

These fuckwits all seem to believe sport is about sorting out the finances, adding up the stats and heyfuckingho finish mid table, but that is success because you didn't spend a fortune!! Gobshites.

In fairness baseball is not football. It's a sport that breaks down into lots of different phases with the same thing in exactly the same bits of the pitch happening over and over again (yeah basically it's boring) so it lends itself to statistical analysis. You should read Moneyball and you'll see how it works, it's to do with knowing which stats actually matter when it comes to winning games (and indirectly why it won't work in football). Even if you don't Billy Beane is a nutcase so there are some great stories about his management in there.

The salient point is exactly that though. This is football and Arsenal, not baseball and Oakland. As the article says they're a poor team for whom not coming last of 4 is a good job - even for them 4th isn't success! I think we can all agree we should set our sights higher.

[Red Member]

Steveo35 is completely right. I suggested the other day that people should give up their season tickets next season.
see the post http://onlinegooner.com/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=32291

obviously I got a lot of stick too but for a lot of things in life the hardest way is often the best option.

I think the fact that so many supporters renewed this season enabled Kroenke to come out last week and say that as far as he is concerned everything is fine. And he is right. He has just got thousands of people to spend more for a product that is worse than last year. I bet the guy can't believe his luck.

KROENKE OUT

[mikehutch86]

We can see your point Red Member but as was said on your post the other day, if i were to give up my season ticket sitting with people i enjoy sitting with to buy tickets on a general sale basis i am the only loser, not kroenke.

Someone else off of the waiting list will snap up my ticket and ill be left having to fork out expensive prices and be scattered around the ground on a match by match basis

[DB10GOONER]

Christ... my eyes... what has been read cannot be unread...


Stats in sports is a load of old bollocks. All these stattos and fucking knob end maths geeks fail to understand (or allow for) two of the most important factors in sporting success; good old fashioned guts and heart.

These fuckwits all seem to believe sport is about sorting out the finances, adding up the stats and heyfuckingho finish mid table, but that is success because you didn't spend a fortune!! Gobshites.

In fairness baseball is not football. It's a sport that breaks down into lots of different phases with the same thing in exactly the same bits of the pitch happening over and over again (yeah basically it's boring) so it lends itself to statistical analysis. You should read Moneyball and you'll see how it works, it's to do with knowing which stats actually matter when it comes to winning games (and indirectly why it won't work in football). Even if you don't Billy Beane is a nutcase so there are some great stories about his management in there.

The salient point is exactly that though. This is football and Arsenal, not baseball and Oakland. As the article says they're a poor team for whom not coming last of 4 is a good job - even for them 4th isn't success! I think we can all agree we should set our sights higher.

I was talking about sports. Baseball (or "Fat Bloke Stick Thump" as I like to call it) is NOT a sport. Thank you.

[Jumpers For Goalposts]

As I have been saying on here - KROENKE OUT

Mate - you're gonna think I'm picking on you (I'm not honest Guv!) but can you not see the massive flaw in what you've posted ??????

Go on, have a try . . . . . . .

The current transfer policy has been in place for years; as has Arsene Wenger. Where as Kroenke has been Club owner for only just over 6 months.

The transfer policy is Wenger's policy, can't you see that?? Kroenke goes along with it because it makes financial sense to do so - i.e. it makes Kroenke even richer! Wenger probably wouldn't spend even if a billionaire owner dropped £100million in cash on his desk. Wenger is too wrapped up in his own ego to do things any differently.

Don't get me wrong though - I'd support any protests against Kroenke as I'd love to see us force him out (I'm convinced he will not be good for us in the long term) BUT our target for any anger and protests should be Wenger, Nothing will change unless he goes I'm afraid.

[Bergkamp-Genius]

A lot of sense in the article but where he lets himself down is by suggesting Wenger could do much better if he was GIVEN money to spend Which suggests that ''Wengernomics'' is not really WENGERnomics but FIZSMANnomics and KROENKEnomics and whoever the owner of Monaco was nomics...and Wenger is just carrying out the policies and philosophies forced on him by them..

I've said all this before, you can't hail Wenger as some sort of trailblazer and hero of modern football economic philosophies and then cover his arse from the failure of those philosophies by suggesting it's actually others who are responsible for those philosophies..