Wengerball in other sports

[storrmin571]

Picked this up off Scarlets blog.

Statistically (based on the 12 seasons of the Celtic League), to finish in the top 4 in the Guinness Pro 12 you have to score, on average, 45 tries and concede no more than 32. Last season we scored 43 tries and conceded 39. Statistically, we are close...

All we have to do is score more and concede less...

No problem...just let the boys know...

The challenge for Pivac, Jones, Hayward and Cunningham, the fitness coaches and veritable army of analysts is... how is this realistically achievable? In a World Cup season. With a squad shorn, for the first two months at least, of its internationals.

The go to men gone. The star quality and razzle dazzle absent.

In Wednesday morning's Evening Post Ioan Cunningham talked of the long term conversion of Jack Payne from back 5 forward to tighthead prop. Anyone who has heard of John Hayes or Richie Vernon will know that changing a player's position is not new to the game.

The question here is, is this an intuitive move by an experienced and knowledgeable coach or something that is driven by stats?

Hands up if you have heard of Moneyball? The basic principles of Moneyball are that you use statistics to identify good value. This does not necessarily mean that a player is cheap. For example, Cristiano Ronaldo cost Real Madrid £80 million in 2009 but 300+ goals later he represents exceptional value in the same way that Matt Giteau and Leigh Halfpenny represent excellent value for 3 times European Cup winners Toulon.

In 2002 Billy Beane, coach of the the American baseball franchise the Oakland Athletics, changed the way they looked at players. They focused purely on statistics and then looked at the area of the diamond that the player would have greatest effect, disregarding totally the player's listed position.

The Oakland Athletics were a side similar in many ways to the Welsh regions. They produced talent but didn't have the financial clout to effectively develop their playing squad to a standard that would allow them to compete successfully season on season, in a way that the Yankees or the Red Sox could because of their ability to cherry pick the best available talent.

Think about Man Utd, Chelsea and Man City. Alex Ferguson always talked of being the best side in both boxes. To achieve this he spent big, as did Mourinho, Ancellotti, Pellegrini and Mancini, on strikers. Sergio Aguero, Robin Van Persie, Eden Hazard, Diego Costa, Didier Drogba, Eden Dzeko, Raheem Sterling, Fernando Torres (not all successful) and Wayne Rooney were purchased at great expense because they guaranteed the most sought after statistic of all...goals, goal, goals(11 of the last 15 Premier Leagues have been won by the team who scored the most goals).

Rugby is a simple game but more complex in terms of the outcomes that a coach looks for. Coaches look for turnovers, they look for territory, collision success, line speed and effective set piece. Like it or not, for most sides, these will yield more points than silky running, dazzling side steps or beautiful vision.

The point of all of this is that coaches will, despite their huge knowledge, make mistakes with players because how you judge a player is subjective. Just ask Sir Alex about Eric Djemba Djemba or Kleberson. No player can be guaranteed success as there are too many variables - personality, attitude etc. So how can you make a considered judgement?

You use the stats.

Many believe that Gatland dropped Brian O'Driscoll because he was eager to revert to Warrenball and smash through the Aussies rather than rely on the guile of BOD. This was true but only because O'Driscoll's GPS tracking stats suggested that he had been struggling horribly in the previous tests. BOD was not dropped because Warren didn't trust him as a rugby player. He was dropped because Warren didn't trust him physically to execute the game plan.

So how can Pivac guide us to the top 4 using statistics? As already discussed, we have to score more tries, something that has been addressed by the signings of DTH and the addition to the coaching staff of the innovative Stevo. We also secured contract extensions for Scott and Liam while the relatively unknown Hadleigh Parkes bolstered us considerably mid season. Stevo's remit will be to get us to 50 tries. In addition, Morgan Allen has been added to offer go forward and gainline success.

How can we improve defensively? Well, we have committed to a more conservative fly half than Rhys in Shings jnr and also opted to bring Aled Thomas back to the region. While rugby romantics may dismiss it, statistically, winning sides are kicking sides. Last season in the Aviva Premiership winning sides kicked 18 times per game and losing teams only 15.

The Professor of Business and Sport at Leeds University Bill Gerrard, states that , "The most effective style of rugby is supported by data. On the whole teams that use a kicking game are more successful. The less you play in your own half and the more that you play in the opposition half, the more likely you are to be successful."

With this in mind, will Aled and Shings start during the opening months and will we focus on ensuring that we dominate territory? A conservative approach and perhaps not in keeping with the traditional Scarlet ethos but pragmatic when you consider that we will have a pack that could contain as many as six players (if Rob and Barclay are available) that are able to jackle. Shaun Edwards waxed lyrical on Rugby Tonight about Saracens having 7 jacklers in their pack and the enormous benefits this quality entailed.

Why didn't we sign a second row apart from Tom Price? Because I believe he has looked at the stats and decided that it is more beneficial to have players that offer flexibility and more diverse value in terms of match numbers than it is to sign a specialist at a high price who lacks flexibility and overall value. Aaron Shingler and Lewis Rawlins will offer you huge value in a number of different areas such as tackling, carrying, ruck hitting, jackling and set piece. Why spend big on a player who can only affect two of these areas when you already have players who offer greater value across the game as a whole?

Modern rugby is hugely driven by statistics. If Jack Payne is being moved to tighthead it will be because the statistics show that he offers value in this area. Why are we doing this? Because this is what you do when you don't have the money to do anything else.

Moneyball is innovation but it uses the tangibles to limit the risk. Every year rugby's professional standards rise. Toulon don't need to innovate because they have a bank full to the brim of swag. We do.

Embrace the statistics.

They may just help us get back in the champagne business at lemonade cost.

Ymlaen

[DB10GOONER]

What. The. Fuck.

[storrmin571]

We are all wrong, Wenger is a genius.

[Redarmy]

Thats a load of shite

[Herd]

We called it wengerball because of moneyball !
The problem with football stats as opposed to baseball starts is that in the past they have been too limited in scope.
Brentford are actually applying it as their Owner is a stats man himself !